Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space game?

Space

Of 2,018 developers who shipped a Space game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,226 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×339 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 3,226 games are announced against 1,225 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 3,226 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 2,018
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.1k → $719 → $719 → $599 → $861 → $539 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 2,018
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 5% $213k (exactly $212,893)
Developers, 2 yr 2,018
Released games 6,767
Announced 3,226
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 263,531 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 975 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,226 games are announced against 1,225 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Space

162 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Tower Defense + Space Poor odds $599 101 devs
  2. Local Multiplayer + Space Poor odds $599 63 devs
  3. Time Manipulation + Space Poor odds $599 22 devs
  4. JRPG + Space Poor odds $599 15 devs
  5. Party-Based RPG + Space Poor odds $599 13 devs
  6. Puzzle + Space Poor odds $598 277 devs
  7. Third-Person Shooter + Space Poor odds $597 70 devs
  8. Hidden Object + Space Poor odds $597 52 devs
  9. PvP + Space Poor odds $539 115 devs
  10. Twin Stick Shooter + Space Poor odds $539 84 devs
  11. 4 Player Local + Space Poor odds $539 26 devs
  12. Beat 'em up + Space Poor odds $539 24 devs
  13. Physics + Space Poor odds $538 289 devs
  14. Dynamic Narration + Space Poor odds $538 16 devs
  15. Level Editor + Space Poor odds $479 24 devs
  16. Action Roguelike + Space Poor odds $449 249 devs
  17. Split Screen + Space Poor odds $360 17 devs
  18. Rhythm + Space Poor odds $300 41 devs
  19. Dungeon Crawler + Space Poor odds $300 33 devs
  20. Farming Sim + Space Poor odds $300 15 devs
  21. Grid-Based Movement + Space Poor odds $179 38 devs
  22. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Space Poor odds $148 9 devs
  23. Sokoban + Space Poor odds $120 11 devs
  24. Party Game + Space Poor odds $89 18 devs
  25. FMV + Space Dead $85k 5 devs
  26. Minigames + Space Dead $53k 5 devs
  27. Fighting + Space Dead $3.9k 7 devs
  28. MMORPG + Space Dead $3.3k 3 devs
  29. Real-Time + Space Dead $2.0k 7 devs
  30. Tanks + Space Dead $1.0k 7 devs
  31. Swordplay + Space Dead $478 7 devs
  32. Platformer + Space Dead $449 179 devs
  33. MOBA + Space Dead $449 7 devs
  34. Shooter + Space Dead $419 514 devs
  35. PvE + Space Dead $419 342 devs
  36. Action + Space Dead $416 1,110 devs
  37. Arena Shooter + Space Dead $359 99 devs
  38. Parkour + Space Dead $359 30 devs
  39. Combat + Space Dead $300 481 devs
  40. Bullet Hell + Space Dead $300 361 devs
  41. On-Rails Shooter + Space Dead $300 29 devs
  42. Shoot 'Em Up + Space Dead $299 311 devs
  43. Flight + Space Dead $299 172 devs
  44. Puzzle Platformer + Space Dead $299 82 devs
  45. Precision Platformer + Space Dead $299 57 devs
  46. Vehicular Combat + Space Dead $298 62 devs
  47. 2D Platformer + Space Dead $270 174 devs
  48. Arcade + Space Dead $269 635 devs
  49. Top-Down Shooter + Space Dead $239 247 devs
  50. 3D Platformer + Space Dead $239 103 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M Halo: The Master Chief Collection 2019 · $287M Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Starfield older $49.99 115,202 58% 3.5M $173M (exactly $172,768,439) Bethesda Game Studios
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Kerbal Space Program older $39.99 120,656 95% 3.6M $145M (exactly $144,751,003) Squad
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Subverse $39.99 13,781 66% 413k $17M (exactly $16,533,066) Studio FOW Interactive
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Mouthwashing $12.99 34,353 95% 1.0M $13M (exactly $13,387,364) Wrong Organ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.