Do I ship it?

GamesAction RoguelikeAction Roguelike + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Action Roguelike?

Action Roguelike + Space

Of 249 developers who shipped a Space Action Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 388 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×129 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 388 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 388 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action Roguelike + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 249
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $419 → $1.2k → $449 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action Roguelike + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 249
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $80,838)
Developers, 2 yr 249
Released games 526
Announced 388
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 54,308 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 120 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 388 games are announced against 144 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 17 announced
  2. + Creature CollectorFair39 devs · median $1.8k · 54 announced
  3. + SportsFair41 devs · median $1.6k · 39 announced
  4. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 19 announced
  5. + VampiresFair55 devs · median $1.3k · 52 announced
  6. + IdlerFair44 devs · median $1.0k · 55 announced
  7. + DogsFair19 devs · median $899 · 18 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + FaithFair16 devs · median $449 · 21 announced
  10. + Character Action GamePoor odds9 devs · median $20k · 40 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $12k · 14 announced
  12. + MechsPoor odds44 devs · median $12k · 85 announced

All 205 pairs on the Action Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Risk of Rain Returns older $14.99 24,795 89% 744k $11M (exactly $11,150,312) Hopoo Games
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
Heat Signature older $14.99 6,849 94% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,995) Suspicious Developments
Shortest Trip to Earth older $25.99 1,257 76% 38k $980k (exactly $980,083) Interactive Fate
Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition older $19.99 1,566 73% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Radiation Blue
TurretGirls $9.99 1,882 85% 56k $564k (exactly $564,035) NANAIRO ENTERPRISE
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Rocket Rats $5.99 2,388 94% 72k $429k (exactly $429,124) Gagonfe
Galactic Glitch $12.99 920 89% 28k $359k (exactly $358,524) Crunchy Leaf Games
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Enter the Chronosphere · EA $14.99 420 94% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) Effort Star
Entropy Survivors $9.99 487 80% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) Moving Pieces Interactive
SHOOPER NOVA $6.99 545 83% 16k $114k (exactly $114,286) Jamesika
Touhou Lensed Night Sky, Kaseigai $22.00 144 95% 4.3k $95k (exactly $95,040) Fire Land

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.