Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Fighting game?

Fighting + Space

Only 7 developers shipped a Space Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Astropods: Starside Glaze, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.9k against a market of $1.5k. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 11 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Fighting + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,595)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $10,500)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 40
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 155,125 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $10k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 11 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
STARWHAL older $11.99 496 92% 15k $178k (exactly $178,411) Breakfall
Drone Swarm older $16.99 279 62% 8.4k $142k (exactly $142,206) stillalive studios
Rigid Force Alpha older $19.99 118 78% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) com8com1 Software
Aeon Must Die! older $19.99 100 51% 3.0k $60k (exactly $59,970) Limestone Games
Proxy Blade Zero older $9.99 131 76% 3.9k $39k (exactly $39,261) D6
Astro Duel older $9.99 72 95% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Rusty Moyher
Freefall Tournament older $4.99 103 75% 3.1k $15k (exactly $15,419) y8.com
Astropods: Starside Glaze $12.50 28 100% 840 $11k (exactly $10,500) CheesiMoon, Breadbinbran
RAGER $19.99 16 100% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Insane Prey
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
Off the Beaten Track $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Blackroot Studios
Bank King Simulator · EA $9.99 12 41% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) RRG Studio
Sumorbit $7.99 9 100% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) Jett Williams
Kosmo Skirmish $4.99 7 85% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Jérémy Entressangle

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.