Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Flight game?

Flight + Space

Of 172 developers who shipped a Space Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 258 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 104 developers shipped in the last year and 258 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 258 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 172
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $628 → $898 → $180 → $1.5k → $210 → $449 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 172
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,992)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $78,821)
Developers, 2 yr 172
Released games 646
Announced 258
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Space Sim, Action, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 24,728 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. Nearly all of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 258 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M STAR WARS™: Squadrons 2020 · $30M Trailmakers 2019 · $25M EVERSPACE™ 2 2023 · $18M SpaceEngine 2019 · EA · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
STAR WARS™: Squadrons older $39.99 25,086 66% 753k $30M (exactly $30,095,674) MOTIVE
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
X Rebirth older $29.99 5,156 42% 155k $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) Egosoft
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Drifter Star: Evolution $3.99 1,165 73% 35k $139k (exactly $139,450) Kayla Studio
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.