Do I ship it?

Games4 Player Local4 Player Local + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space 4 Player Local game?

4 Player Local + Space

Of 26 developers who shipped a Space 4 Player Local game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $17k, ×28 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 32 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
4 Player Local + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $598 → $1.3k → $2.2k → $90 → $4.5k → $0 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 4 Player Local + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $17,538)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 147
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

4 Player Local
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
4 Player Local; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 260 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $540, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

4 Player Local with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  2. + Multiple EndingsFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  3. + SimulationFair69 devs · median $2.1k · 86 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 15 announced
  5. + CatsFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 16 announced
  6. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  7. + ManagementPoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 37 announced
  8. + Football (Soccer)Poor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + Beat 'em upPoor odds30 devs · median $8.7k · 67 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds15 devs · median $8.5k · 19 announced
  11. + TriviaPoor odds9 devs · median $7.2k · 9 announced
  12. + MinigamesPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 28 announced

All 109 pairs on the 4 Player Local page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ Dive Harder Edition older $19.99 25,663 90% 770k $15M (exactly $15,390,101) Arrowhead Game Studios
Lovers in a Dangerous Spacetime older $14.99 3,368 93% 101k $1.5M (exactly $1,514,590) Asteroid Base
DARIUSBURST Chronicle Saviours older $49.99 717 82% 22k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,285) Pyramid
Out of Space older $14.99 2,003 79% 60k $901k (exactly $900,749) Behold Studios
Aero GPX · EA older $19.99 747 97% 22k $448k (exactly $447,976) Aaron McDevitt
This Means Warp older $19.99 438 71% 13k $263k (exactly $262,669) Outlier
SUPER BOMBERMAN R 2 older $49.99 149 53% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) KONAMI
STARWHAL older $11.99 496 92% 15k $178k (exactly $178,411) Breakfall
PARTICLE MACE older $4.99 1,083 87% 32k $162k (exactly $162,125) Andy Makes
CounterAttack: Uprising older $14.99 272 90% 8.2k $122k (exactly $122,318) Relative Games
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
Servonauts $14.99 39 87% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) MAXART Games
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
Pulsar Crash $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Little Doctor Games
Off the Beaten Track $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Blackroot Studios
Sumorbit $7.99 9 100% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) Jett Williams
Unidentified Feline Obliterators $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Shattered Journal Games
Asteroid 69 $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) Moonlight Workshop LLC
Kosmo Skirmish $4.99 7 85% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Jérémy Entressangle
Velocide Overdrive $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) NoxRift Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.