Do I ship it?

Games › FMV › FMV + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space FMV?

FMV + Space

Only 5 developers shipped a Space FMV in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War!, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $85k against a market of $630. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 136.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 7 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FMV + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for FMV + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $46k (exactly $46,454)
Median $85k (exactly $85,414)
Top 25% $157k (exactly $156,999)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 32
Announced 7
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
FMV
Price point
$12.49 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 6,826 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $47k, median $85k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $47k. 7 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FMV with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticStrong odds8 devs · median $74k · 5 announced
  3. + StrategyStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  5. + Immersive SimStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  6. + Choices MatterStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  7. + Dating SimStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  8. + RomanceStrong odds101 devs · median $56k · 63 announced
  9. + SimulationStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  10. + JRPGStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  11. + Visual NovelStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  12. + RPGStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced

All 63 pairs on the FMV page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! 2026 · $1.0M STASIS 2015 · $409k STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight: Dark Forces II 2009 · $334k Iron Sky: Invasion 2012 · $232k Next Space Rebels 2021 · $196k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
STASIS older $7.99 1,708 79% 51k $409k (exactly $409,408) THE BROTHERHOOD
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight: Dark Forces II older $5.99 1,861 80% 56k $334k (exactly $334,422) LucasArts
Iron Sky: Invasion older $19.99 387 61% 12k $232k (exactly $232,084) Reality Pump
Next Space Rebels older $19.99 327 84% 9.8k $196k (exactly $196,102) Studio Floris Kaayk
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Squad 51 vs. the Flying Saucers older $19.99 199 91% 6.0k $119k (exactly $119,340) Loomiarts, Fehorama Filmes
PASSIONERS $9.99 285 62% 8.6k $85k (exactly $85,414) CryoDreams Interactive
Star Trek™: Starfleet Academy older $19.99 129 81% 3.9k $77k (exactly $77,361) Interplay Entertainment Corp.
Space Ace older $9.99 159 79% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,652) Digital Leisure Inc.
LUST Company 👾 $9.99 155 65% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) Taboo Tales 💘
Stardust Demon $19.99 77 83% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) resnijars

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.