Do I ship it?

Games › Combat › Combat + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Combat game?

Combat + Space

Of 481 developers who shipped a Space Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 762 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 281 developers shipped in the last year and 762 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 762 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 481
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $748 → $899 → $538 → $300 → $599 → $359 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 481
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 5% $83k (exactly $83,414)
Developers, 2 yr 481
Released games 1,271
Announced 762
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 110,337 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $83k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 238 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 762 games are announced against 281 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ 2023 · $168M Dead Space 2023 · $113M Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition 2021 · $112M STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II 2020 · $105M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
Space Engineers older $19.99 100,533 89% 3.0M $60M (exactly $60,289,640) Keen Software House
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Aliens: Fireteam Elite 2 $49.99 3,515 61% 105k $5.3M (exactly $5,271,446) Cold Iron Studios
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
High On Life 2 $39.99 2,200 71% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340) Squanch Games, Inc.
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games
Angels Fall First $17.99 3,835 81% 115k $2.1M (exactly $2,069,749) Strangely Interactive Ltd
Mycopunk · EA $14.99 4,081 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,835,226) Pigeons at Play

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.