Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Shooter?

Shooter + Space

Of 514 developers who shipped a Space Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 691 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 290 developers shipped in the last year and 691 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 691 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 514
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $479 → $449 → $479 → $300 → $897 → $330 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 514
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Top 5% $260k (exactly $260,140)
Developers, 2 yr 514
Released games 1,834
Announced 691
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 96,988 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $420, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 262 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 691 games are announced against 290 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Halo: The Master Chief Collection older $39.99 239,603 92% 7.2M $287M (exactly $287,451,719) 343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian… (343 Industries, Splash Damage, Ruffian Games, Bungie, Saber Interactive)
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Dead Space older $59.99 62,997 90% 1.9M $113M (exactly $113,375,701) Motive
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
STAR WARS™ Battlefront™ II older $39.99 87,494 88% 2.6M $105M (exactly $104,966,552) DICE
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy older $59.99 35,397 93% 1.1M $64M (exactly $63,703,981) Eidos-Montréal
The Callisto Protocol™ older $59.99 35,135 66% 1.1M $63M (exactly $63,232,460) Striking Distance Studios
Alien: Isolation older $39.99 48,591 92% 1.5M $58M (exactly $58,294,623) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (M… (Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Aliens: Fireteam Elite 2 $49.99 3,515 61% 105k $5.3M (exactly $5,271,446) Cold Iron Studios
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
Species: Unknown · EA $9.99 9,437 94% 283k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,269) WanadevStudio
High On Life 2 $39.99 2,200 71% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,639,340) Squanch Games, Inc.
Voidling Bound $24.99 3,126 92% 94k $2.3M (exactly $2,343,562) Hatchery Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.