Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Space

Only 7 developers shipped a Space Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Stardust Exile, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.0k against a market of $630. 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 10 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $643k → $27k → $20k
Outcomes for Real-Time + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,188)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,242)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $19,787)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 79
Announced 10
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 49,632 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 10 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak 2016 · $12M Sins of a Solar Empire II 2024 · $11M Homeworld 3 2024 · $9.8M Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance 2011 · $3.9M Per Aspera 2020 · $3.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homeworld: Deserts of Kharak older $49.99 7,800 79% 234k $12M (exactly $11,697,660) Blackbird Interactive
Sins of a Solar Empire II older $49.99 7,147 83% 214k $11M (exactly $10,718,356) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Homeworld 3 older $59.99 5,436 38% 163k $9.8M (exactly $9,783,169) Blackbird Interactive
Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance older $12.99 9,919 96% 298k $3.9M (exactly $3,865,434) Gas Powered Games
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Supreme Commander 2 older $12.99 8,349 87% 250k $3.3M (exactly $3,253,605) Gas Powered Games
Grey Goo older $29.99 2,602 69% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,341,019) Petroglyph, Six Foot
Distant Worlds: Universe older $29.99 1,417 71% 43k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,875) Code Force
Executive Assault 2 older $24.99 1,604 82% 48k $1.2M (exactly $1,202,519) Hesketh Studios Ltd
StarDrive older $29.99 1,253 43% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,127,324) Zero Sum Games
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
Fleetbreakers · EA $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Last Keep
Space Sim Tycoon $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SuperChicken Productions LLC
Millennium Conflict $3.99 17 100% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) Badim
Last Signal $0.99 40 72% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,188) Under Heaven Studios
Edge Of Extinction $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Azulon Studios
Skyos · EA $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SkyOS Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.