Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice game?

Dice

Of 139 developers who shipped a Dice game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 211 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×20 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×3282 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 211 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 211 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 139
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $27k → $2.2k → $11k → $2.7k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 139
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,536)
Top 5% $391k (exactly $390,594)
Developers, 2 yr 139
Released games 177
Announced 211
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Dice
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 14,439 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 211 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Dice

19 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Roguelike Deckbuilder + Dice Fair $9.6k 36 devs
  2. Dungeon Crawler + Dice Fair $5.1k 24 devs
  3. Turn-Based Combat + Dice Fair $2.2k 49 devs
  4. Turn-Based Tactics + Dice Fair $1.6k 47 devs
  5. Simulation + Dice Fair $1.2k 21 devs
  6. Turn-Based + Dice Poor odds $11k 24 devs
  7. Adventure + Dice Poor odds $10k 28 devs
  8. RPG + Dice Poor odds $10k 45 devs
  9. Card Game + Dice Poor odds $7.2k 34 devs
  10. Roguelite + Dice Poor odds $6.1k 60 devs
  11. Deckbuilding + Dice Poor odds $4.8k 58 devs
  12. Choices Matter + Dice Poor odds $2.7k 29 devs
  13. Strategy + Dice Poor odds $2.6k 100 devs
  14. Roguelike + Dice Poor odds $2.6k 70 devs
  15. Card Battler + Dice Poor odds $2.6k 27 devs
  16. Turn-Based Strategy + Dice Poor odds $2.2k 46 devs
  17. Tactical + Dice Poor odds $2.2k 20 devs
  18. Dice + Tabletop Poor odds $1.7k 44 devs
  19. Board Game + Dice Poor odds $1.0k 41 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Citizen Sleeper 2022 · $5.0M Dicey Dungeons 2019 · $4.7M Gordian Quest 2022 · $3.2M Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles 2023 · $2.3M DICEOMANCER 2024 · $2.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
Dicey Dungeons older $14.99 10,444 88% 313k $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) Terry Cavanagh
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles older $24.99 3,011 92% 90k $2.3M (exactly $2,257,347) Little Leo Games
DICEOMANCER $14.99 4,749 96% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,135,625) 超厚皮猪猪 Ultra Piggy Studio
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Rune Dice $14.99 1,267 79% 38k $570k (exactly $569,770) Smart Raven Studio
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.