Do I ship it?

GamesBoard GameBoard Game + Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice Board Game?

Board Game + Dice

Of 41 developers who shipped a Dice Board Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×8.8 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×2822 the market median. Revenue is up 590% on the market; 74 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 590% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $628 → $90 → $12k → $3.4k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,866)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 60
Announced 74
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 590% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Board Game, Dice; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Tabletop
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 4,611 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Heroes of Normandie older $29.99 212 72% 6.4k $191k (exactly $190,736) Cat Rabbit
Children of Zodiarcs older $17.99 351 69% 11k $189k (exactly $189,435) Cardboard Utopia
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Circadian Dice older $5.99 553 94% 17k $99k (exactly $99,374) Shuffle Up Games
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Die For The Lich · EA $11.99 275 78% 8.3k $99k (exactly $98,918) Monovoid
Moves Of The Diamond Hand · EA $19.99 105 100% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Cosmo D Studios
Amberspire $24.99 58 86% 1.7k $43k (exactly $43,483) Lunar Division
Cheat Death $12.99 45 84% 1.4k $18k (exactly $17,536) GG Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.