Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice Roguelite?

Roguelite + Dice

Of 60 developers who shipped a Dice Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×1200 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 115 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 115 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $2.4k → $13k → $6.6k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,159)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,115)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,079)
Top 5% $570k (exactly $569,770)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 69
Announced 115
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 230% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite, Dice; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 11,294 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dicey Dungeons 2019 · $4.7M Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles 2023 · $2.3M DICEOMANCER 2024 · $2.1M SpellRogue 2025 · $939k Rune Dice 2026 · $570k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dicey Dungeons older $14.99 10,444 88% 313k $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) Terry Cavanagh
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles older $24.99 3,011 92% 90k $2.3M (exactly $2,257,347) Little Leo Games
DICEOMANCER $14.99 4,749 96% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,135,625) 超厚皮猪猪 Ultra Piggy Studio
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Rune Dice $14.99 1,267 79% 38k $570k (exactly $569,770) Smart Raven Studio
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Pirate's Gambit $9.99 448 89% 13k $134k (exactly $134,266) Domestic Black Cat
Die For The Lich · EA $11.99 275 78% 8.3k $99k (exactly $98,918) Monovoid
DOG WITCH $9.99 323 89% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,803) Heckmouse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.