Do I ship it?

Games › Adventure › Adventure + Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice Adventure game?

Adventure + Dice

Of 28 developers who shipped a Dice Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×22 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×822 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 31 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $20k → $1.7k → $10k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $10k (exactly $10,343)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,972)
Top 5% $391k (exactly $390,594)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 35
Announced 31
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Dice; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 4,396 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Citizen Sleeper 2022 · $5.0M Gordian Quest 2022 · $3.2M Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector 2025 · $1.8M Aether & Iron 2026 · $391k Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? 2026 · $336k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Lust Arcanum $17.99 184 75% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) GigiBee, Karne
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Die For The Lich · EA $11.99 275 78% 8.3k $99k (exactly $98,918) Monovoid
Flint: Treasure of Oblivion $24.99 92 51% 2.8k $69k (exactly $68,972) Savage Level
Moves Of The Diamond Hand · EA $19.99 105 100% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Cosmo D Studios
Celestial Return $14.99 140 85% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,958) Metaphor Games
VED $19.99 53 79% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) Karaclan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.