Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice Roguelike?

Roguelike + Dice

Of 70 developers who shipped a Dice Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×5.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×882 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 126 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 126 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 70
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $2.4k → $12k → $2.6k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 70
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,365)
Top 5% $419k (exactly $418,928)
Developers, 2 yr 70
Released games 82
Announced 126
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 240% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Dice; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Strategy, Deckbuilding
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 10,827 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dicey Dungeons 2019 · $4.7M Gordian Quest 2022 · $3.2M Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles 2023 · $2.3M DICEOMANCER 2024 · $2.1M Dice & Fold 2024 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dicey Dungeons older $14.99 10,444 88% 313k $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) Terry Cavanagh
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles older $24.99 3,011 92% 90k $2.3M (exactly $2,257,347) Little Leo Games
DICEOMANCER $14.99 4,749 96% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,135,625) 超厚皮猪猪 Ultra Piggy Studio
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Rune Dice $14.99 1,267 79% 38k $570k (exactly $569,770) Smart Raven Studio
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Dice Legends $19.99 252 76% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Big Bite Games, Ad Luna
Die For The Lich · EA $11.99 275 78% 8.3k $99k (exactly $98,918) Monovoid
DOG WITCH $9.99 323 89% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,803) Heckmouse
Archon Soul $13.99 170 88% 5.1k $71k (exactly $71,349) PolyGryph

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.