Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Dice

Of 46 developers who shipped a Dice Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×622 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 79 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 79 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $12k → $3.4k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,084)
Top 5% $391k (exactly $390,594)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 63
Announced 79
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Dice; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Deckbuilding
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,552 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Gordian Quest 2022 · $3.2M Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles 2023 · $2.3M Dice & Fold 2024 · $1.4M Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked 2025 · $1.1M SpellRogue 2025 · $939k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles older $24.99 3,011 92% 90k $2.3M (exactly $2,257,347) Little Leo Games
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
Heroes of Normandie older $29.99 212 72% 6.4k $191k (exactly $190,736) Cat Rabbit
Children of Zodiarcs older $17.99 351 69% 11k $189k (exactly $189,435) Cardboard Utopia
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Die For The Lich · EA $11.99 275 78% 8.3k $99k (exactly $98,918) Monovoid
Flint: Treasure of Oblivion $24.99 92 51% 2.8k $69k (exactly $68,972) Savage Level
Pip My Dice $10.99 134 87% 4.0k $44k (exactly $44,180) Diving Swan Games
Luck & Loot $7.99 138 90% 4.1k $33k (exactly $33,079) SMARTcreative

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.