Do I ship it?

GamesDiceDice + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice Tabletop game?

Dice + Tabletop

Of 44 developers who shipped a Dice Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×14 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×2822 the market median. Revenue is up 195% on the market; 71 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 195% on the market, 71 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dice + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.7k → $2.0k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dice + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,800)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $335,866)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 55
Announced 71
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 195% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Dice, Tabletop; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,691 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dice with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair24 devs · median $5.1k · 32 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  4. + Turn-Based TacticsFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + SimulationFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 29 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 34 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds28 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  8. + RPGPoor odds45 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + Card GamePoor odds34 devs · median $7.2k · 72 announced
  10. + RoguelitePoor odds60 devs · median $6.1k · 115 announced
  11. + FantasyPoor odds41 devs · median $5.1k · 55 announced
  12. + DeckbuildingPoor odds58 devs · median $4.8k · 101 announced

All 19 pairs on the Dice page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram
Sagrada older $9.99 317 94% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,005) Dire Wolf
Elder Sign: Omens older $5.99 441 77% 13k $79k (exactly $79,248) Fantasy Flight Publishing, Inc.
Celestial Return $14.99 140 85% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,958) Metaphor Games
Pip My Dice $10.99 134 87% 4.0k $44k (exactly $44,180) Diving Swan Games
Amberspire $24.99 58 86% 1.7k $43k (exactly $43,483) Lunar Division

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.