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Should I ship a Choices Matter Dice game?
Choices Matter + Dice
Of 29 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Dice game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×688 the market median. Revenue is up 395% on the market; 52 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,698) |
| Top 25% | $32k (exactly $31,784) |
| Top 5% | $327k (exactly $326,946) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 29 |
| Released games | 34 |
| Announced | 52 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 395% on the market, supply 215% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Dice
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Dice; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Roguelike
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Hand-drawn
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,655 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Aether & Iron 2026 · $391k 
Dice With Death 2026 · $327k 
Marisa of Liartop Mountain 2025 · $129k 
Worlds of Aria 2024 · $99k 
DOG WITCH 2025 · $97k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Aether & Iron | $24.99 | 521 84% | 16k | $391k (exactly $390,594) | Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games | |
| | Dice With Death | $13.99 | 779 91% | 23k | $327k (exactly $326,946) | Sea Glass Games | |
| | Marisa of Liartop Mountain | $14.99 | 286 84% | 8.6k | $129k (exactly $128,614) | Alliance Arts, UnknownX | |
| | Worlds of Aria | $14.99 | 220 90% | 6.6k | $99k (exactly $98,934) | Ludogram | |
| | DOG WITCH | $9.99 | 323 89% | 9.7k | $97k (exactly $96,803) | Heckmouse | |
 | Archon Soul | $13.99 | 170 88% | 5.1k | $71k (exactly $71,349) | PolyGryph | |
 | Celestial Return | $14.99 | 140 85% | 4.2k | $63k (exactly $62,958) | Metaphor Games | |
 | Roll | older | $4.99 | 407 91% | 12k | $61k (exactly $60,928) | Joseph Distler |
 | Luckitown | older | $4.99 | 241 82% | 7.2k | $36k (exactly $36,078) | Sokpop Collective |
 | VED | $19.99 | 53 79% | 1.6k | $32k (exactly $31,784) | Karaclan | |
 | STICKER/BALL | $7.99 | 118 90% | 3.5k | $28k (exactly $28,285) | bilge | |
 | Kill The Clock | · EA | $14.99 | 45 88% | 1.4k | $20k (exactly $20,236) | Happy Slugs |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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