Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Dice

Of 24 developers who shipped a Dice Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $930k, ×1495 the market median. Revenue is up 705% on the market; 34 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 705% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $11k → $11k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,242)
Median $11k (exactly $10,782)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $71,349)
Top 5% $939k (exactly $939,130)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 40
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.11

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 705% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Dice; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$11.11 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.11.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 4,982 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.3k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $930k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dicey Dungeons 2019 · $4.7M Gordian Quest 2022 · $3.2M Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles 2023 · $2.3M Dice & Fold 2024 · $1.4M Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked 2025 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dicey Dungeons older $14.99 10,444 88% 313k $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) Terry Cavanagh
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles older $24.99 3,011 92% 90k $2.3M (exactly $2,257,347) Little Leo Games
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Heroes of Normandie older $29.99 212 72% 6.4k $191k (exactly $190,736) Cat Rabbit
Children of Zodiarcs older $17.99 351 69% 11k $189k (exactly $189,435) Cardboard Utopia
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Archon Soul $13.99 170 88% 5.1k $71k (exactly $71,349) PolyGryph
RogueDiceR · EA $14.99 108 84% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) GAMPANY
VED $19.99 53 79% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) Karaclan
Dice 'n Goblins $13.99 55 90% 1.7k $23k (exactly $23,084) Tsukumogami Software
Fortune Avenue · EA $6.99 63 84% 1.9k $13k (exactly $13,211) Binogure Studio 🐺

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.