Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Dice

Of 58 developers who shipped a Dice Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×10 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×1200 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 101 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 101 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $33k → $2.9k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,431)
Top 5% $570k (exactly $569,770)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 71
Announced 101
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Dice; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 11,230 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dicey Dungeons older $14.99 10,444 88% 313k $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) Terry Cavanagh
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles older $24.99 3,011 92% 90k $2.3M (exactly $2,257,347) Little Leo Games
DICEOMANCER $14.99 4,749 96% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,135,625) 超厚皮猪猪 Ultra Piggy Studio
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
SpellRogue $19.99 1,566 86% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Guidelight Games
Rune Dice $14.99 1,267 79% 38k $570k (exactly $569,770) Smart Raven Studio
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Dice Legends $19.99 252 76% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Big Bite Games, Ad Luna
Pirate's Gambit $9.99 448 89% 13k $134k (exactly $134,266) Domestic Black Cat
Die For The Lich · EA $11.99 275 78% 8.3k $99k (exactly $98,918) Monovoid

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.