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Should I ship a Dice Simulation game?
Simulation + Dice
Of 21 developers who shipped a Dice Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.
Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 2240% on the market; 29 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $450 (exactly $450) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,230) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,211) |
| Top 5% | $43k (exactly $43,483) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 21 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 29 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2240% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Dice
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Dice; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Card Game
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Funny
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 3,041 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Incredicer 2025 · $216k 
Amberspire 2026 · $43k 
Luckitown 2022 · $36k 
STICKER/BALL 2026 · $28k 
Debtors' Club 2024 · $27k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Incredicer | $2.99 | 2,408 85% | 72k | $216k (exactly $215,998) | pochi | |
| | Amberspire | $24.99 | 58 86% | 1.7k | $43k (exactly $43,483) | Lunar Division | |
| | Luckitown | older | $4.99 | 241 82% | 7.2k | $36k (exactly $36,078) | Sokpop Collective |
| | STICKER/BALL | $7.99 | 118 90% | 3.5k | $28k (exactly $28,285) | bilge | |
| | Debtors' Club | older | $14.99 | 59 69% | 1.8k | $27k (exactly $26,532) | mecagames |
 | Yacht Dice | older | $0.99 | 610 77% | 18k | $18k (exactly $18,117) | GoodOldMan Studio |
 | Sophie's Dice | older | $4.99 | 121 99% | 3.6k | $18k (exactly $18,114) | Sophie Houlden |
 | Cheat Death | $12.99 | 45 84% | 1.4k | $18k (exactly $17,536) | GG Studio | |
 | Saratoga | $9.99 | 45 95% | 1.4k | $13k (exactly $13,486) | Hexes of War | |
 | Fortune Avenue | · EA | $6.99 | 63 84% | 1.9k | $13k (exactly $13,211) | Binogure Studio 🐺 |
 | Dice Goblins Clicker | $5.99 | 52 65% | 1.6k | $9.3k (exactly $9,344) | Crytime | |
 | One More 6ix | $1.99 | 147 99% | 4.4k | $8.8k (exactly $8,776) | Crazish Games | |
 | Meeple Incremental | $5.99 | 39 92% | 1.2k | $7.0k (exactly $7,008) | Simply Artizan | |
 | Harvest Dice Profit | $2.99 | 66 92% | 2.0k | $5.9k (exactly $5,920) | Red Corn |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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