Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Dice

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dice RPG?

RPG + Dice

Of 45 developers who shipped a Dice RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×907 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 57 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 57 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Dice
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $69k → $20k → $33k → $10k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Dice: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,394)
Median $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,972)
Top 5% $570k (exactly $569,770)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 58
Announced 57
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dice
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Dice; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Strategy, Tabletop
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 7,212 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Citizen Sleeper 2022 · $5.0M Dicey Dungeons 2019 · $4.7M Gordian Quest 2022 · $3.2M Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles 2023 · $2.3M Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector 2025 · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Citizen Sleeper older $19.99 8,271 92% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,960,119) Jump Over The Age
Dicey Dungeons older $14.99 10,444 88% 313k $4.7M (exactly $4,696,667) Terry Cavanagh
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles older $24.99 3,011 92% 90k $2.3M (exactly $2,257,347) Little Leo Games
Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector $24.99 2,358 91% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) Jump Over The Age
Dice & Fold older $12.99 3,491 83% 105k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,443) Tinymice Entertainment
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Rune Dice $14.99 1,267 79% 38k $570k (exactly $569,770) Smart Raven Studio
Aether & Iron $24.99 521 84% 16k $391k (exactly $390,594) Seismic Squirrel, Chaos Theory Games
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
Dice Legends $19.99 252 76% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Big Bite Games, Ad Luna
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Lust Arcanum $17.99 184 75% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) GigiBee, Karne
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.