Do I ship it?

GamesMechanicsBoxing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Boxing game?

Boxing

Of 96 developers who shipped a Boxing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×173 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 124 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 124 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Boxing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $239 → $599 → $1.8k → $1.6k → $599 → $898 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Boxing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,198)
Top 5% $109k (exactly $108,864)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 322
Announced 124
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Boxing
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 20,769 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Boxing

22 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Immersive Sim + Boxing Strong odds $2.7k 16 devs
  2. Boxing + Simulation Fair $1.6k 39 devs
  3. Boxing + Strategy Poor odds $4.5k 12 devs
  4. Fighting + Boxing Poor odds $4.2k 16 devs
  5. 2D Fighter + Boxing Poor odds $1.4k 14 devs
  6. Boxing + Adventure Poor odds $1.3k 18 devs
  7. Sports + Boxing Poor odds $898 61 devs
  8. Action + Boxing Poor odds $719 65 devs
  9. Boxing + Combat Poor odds $719 49 devs
  10. PvP + Boxing Poor odds $718 16 devs
  11. Boxing + Physics Poor odds $718 14 devs
  12. 3D Fighter + Boxing Poor odds $599 38 devs
  13. Boxing + Beat 'em up Poor odds $299 23 devs
  14. Character Customization + Boxing Poor odds $240 16 devs
  15. Boxing + Arcade Poor odds $148 37 devs
  16. RPG + Boxing Dead $2.1k 11 devs
  17. Boxing + Local Multiplayer Dead $1.6k 7 devs
  18. Action-Adventure + Boxing Dead $359 16 devs
  19. Boxing + Rhythm Dead $300 9 devs
  20. PvE + Boxing Dead $150 16 devs
  21. Spectacle fighter + Boxing Dead $148 14 devs
  22. 3D Platformer + Boxing Dead $120 6 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Creed: Rise to Glory™ older $29.99 1,694 73% 51k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,092) Survios
BOXVR older $29.99 1,512 79% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,346) FitXR
The Thrill of the Fight - VR Boxing older $9.99 3,973 95% 119k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,708) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Kao the Kangaroo older $29.99 871 74% 26k $784k (exactly $783,639) Tate Multimedia
Waifu Fighter older $7.99 2,677 86% 80k $642k (exactly $641,677) Happy Monster Studio
Punch A Bunch older $14.99 963 74% 29k $433k (exactly $433,061) Pontypants
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
MMA Life Simulator $16.99 435 80% 13k $222k (exactly $221,719) BNS7
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
Baki Hanma: Blood Arena $29.99 138 76% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Purple Tree S R L
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab
Voltage High Society $19.99 144 92% 4.3k $86k (exactly $86,357) Platonic Partnership
Pound for Pound: MMA Promotion Simulator · EA $19.99 136 96% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Pound for Pound Games
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions
Beat the Beats VR $19.99 48 97% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Parallel Circles

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.