Do I ship it?

GamesBoxingBoxing + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Boxing game?

Boxing + Arcade

Of 37 developers who shipped an Arcade Boxing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150, ×0.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 43 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper, while revenue is down 95% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Boxing + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $1.1k → $359 → $1.2k → $4.2k → $90 → $119 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Boxing + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $148 (exactly $148)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,198)
Top 5% $124k (exactly $124,159)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 120
Announced 43
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Boxing, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Sports, Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 898 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Boxing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  2. + SimulationFair39 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  3. + StrategyPoor odds12 devs · median $4.5k · 21 announced
  4. + FightingPoor odds16 devs · median $4.2k · 26 announced
  5. + 2D FighterPoor odds14 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsPoor odds30 devs · median $1.4k · 47 announced
  7. + AdventurePoor odds18 devs · median $1.3k · 24 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds61 devs · median $898 · 62 announced
  9. + ActionPoor odds65 devs · median $719 · 84 announced
  10. + CombatPoor odds49 devs · median $719 · 70 announced
  11. + PvPPoor odds16 devs · median $718 · 38 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $718 · 27 announced

All 24 pairs on the Boxing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Kao the Kangaroo older $29.99 871 74% 26k $784k (exactly $783,639) Tate Multimedia
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Dragon Fist: VR Kung Fu older $19.99 305 95% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ben Olding Games
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
Real Boxing™ older $4.99 908 68% 27k $136k (exactly $135,928) Vivid Games S.A.
Baki Hanma: Blood Arena $29.99 138 76% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Purple Tree S R L
Thunder Ray older $14.99 270 71% 8.1k $121k (exactly $121,419) Purple Tree S R L
Big Rumble Boxing: Creed Champions older $39.99 92 65% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Survios
Bloody Knuckles Street Boxing · EA older $14.99 210 52% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Luvseatshawty
Beat the Beats VR $19.99 48 97% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Parallel Circles
Leftovers KO! $9.99 92 66% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,572) Mountain Man Animation
Backyard Boxing $7.99 49 48% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Crime House Games, TheShadeGameDev
Creepy Creepy Love $4.99 62 93% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) BYYONI Entertainment
Punch to Glory $6.99 42 92% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Musa GUNGOR
The SeethingSwarm Collection $9.99 25 92% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) Seethingswarm
Bare Knuckle Sandwich $7.99 29 96% 870 $7.0k (exactly $6,951) Raised By Screens
Knockout 2: Wrath of the Karen · EA $19.99 7 85% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) ExceptioNULL Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.