Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Boxing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Boxing Sports game?

Sports + Boxing

Of 61 developers who shipped a Boxing Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $81k, ×130 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 62 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 62 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Boxing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $450 → $1.5k → $3.8k → $4.2k → $599 → $898 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Boxing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $82k (exactly $81,559)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 189
Announced 62
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Boxing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 19,965 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $81k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Creed: Rise to Glory™ older $29.99 1,694 73% 51k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,092) Survios
BOXVR older $29.99 1,512 79% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,346) FitXR
The Thrill of the Fight - VR Boxing older $9.99 3,973 95% 119k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,708) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Waifu Fighter older $7.99 2,677 86% 80k $642k (exactly $641,677) Happy Monster Studio
Punch A Bunch older $14.99 963 74% 29k $433k (exactly $433,061) Pontypants
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
PowerBeatsVR - VR Fitness older $19.99 453 85% 14k $272k (exactly $271,664) Five Mind Creations
Baki Hanma: Blood Arena $29.99 138 76% 4.1k $124k (exactly $124,159) Purple Tree S R L
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab
Pound for Pound: MMA Promotion Simulator · EA $19.99 136 96% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Pound for Pound Games
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Beat the Beats VR $19.99 48 97% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Parallel Circles
Leftovers KO! $9.99 92 66% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,572) Mountain Man Animation
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
Boxing School 2 $14.99 41 80% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Raptor Claw Games
Corner King: Boxing Tycoon $16.99 36 94% 1.1k $18k (exactly $18,349) Temporal Lure

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.