Do I ship it?

Games › 3D Fighter › 3D Fighter + Boxing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Boxing 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Boxing

Of 38 developers who shipped a Boxing 3D Fighter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 57 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 57 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Boxing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $90 → $1.5k → $25k → $1.6k → $599 → $119 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Boxing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $158,218)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 119
Announced 57
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter, Boxing; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Sports
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 19,973 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Undisputed 2024 · $29M The Thrill of the Fight - VR Boxing 2019 · $1.2M Gym Simulator 24 2024 · $986k Punch A Bunch 2023 · $433k Dragon Fist: VR Kung Fu 2021 · $183k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
The Thrill of the Fight - VR Boxing older $9.99 3,973 95% 119k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,708) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Punch A Bunch older $14.99 963 74% 29k $433k (exactly $433,061) Pontypants
Dragon Fist: VR Kung Fu older $19.99 305 95% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ben Olding Games
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
Tactic Boxing older $9.99 416 77% 12k $125k (exactly $124,675) Stately Eagle Games
Big Rumble Boxing: Creed Champions older $39.99 92 65% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Survios
LES MILLS XR BODYCOMBAT $29.99 121 85% 3.6k $109k (exactly $108,864) Odders Lab
Boxing Club Manager older $39.99 87 57% 2.6k $104k (exactly $104,374) Alternative Software Ltd
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
Backyard Boxing $7.99 49 48% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Crime House Games, TheShadeGameDev
Real Boxing 2: Remastered $9.99 18 38% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Vivid Games S.A.
Boxing Simulator · EA $5.99 15 80% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Rahu Studio
Golden Gloves VR $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Engine Room VR
Glamour Riot · EA $9.99 7 28% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) AquaStudio, ValarFerys

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.