Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Boxing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Boxing Fighting game?

Fighting + Boxing

Only 16 developers shipped a Boxing Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Undisputed, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×2.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $28M, ×19212 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 26 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 26 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Boxing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $1.1k → $299 → $25k → $4.2k → $5.4k → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Boxing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,258)
Top 5% $29M (exactly $28,779,243)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 70
Announced 26
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Boxing; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 19,920 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $28M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Creed: Rise to Glory™ older $29.99 1,694 73% 51k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,092) Survios
The Thrill of the Fight - VR Boxing older $9.99 3,973 95% 119k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,708) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Punch A Bunch older $14.99 963 74% 29k $433k (exactly $433,061) Pontypants
MMA Life Simulator $16.99 435 80% 13k $222k (exactly $221,719) BNS7
Knockout League - Arcade VR Boxing older $19.99 349 77% 10k $209k (exactly $209,295) Grab Games
Dragon Fist: VR Kung Fu older $19.99 305 95% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Ben Olding Games
Real Boxing™ older $4.99 908 68% 27k $136k (exactly $135,928) Vivid Games S.A.
Kandidatos older $0.99 3,461 90% 104k $103k (exactly $102,792) Shaikonina Games
Boxing Simulator $7.99 79 79% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Inogames
UnderGirl: Submission Path $7.99 72 73% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,258) KadoDev
Backyard Boxing $7.99 49 48% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Crime House Games, TheShadeGameDev
Real Boxing 2: Remastered $9.99 18 38% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Vivid Games S.A.
Sim: Heavyweight Boxing Champion $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Jfsimgames
Turn Based Boxing: Tactics - Legends Edition $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) The Slanted Room
Brainrot Animals Fighting $1.99 35 71% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,090) River Way Studios
Genki Break! $4.99 13 100% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) SteamyDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.