Do I ship it?

GamesBoxingBoxing + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Boxing game?

Boxing + Adventure

Only 18 developers shipped an Adventure Boxing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MMA Life Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×353 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 24 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Boxing + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $2.7k → $9.3k → $479 → $120 → $4.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Boxing + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,492)
Top 5% $222k (exactly $221,719)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 59
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Boxing, Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Multiple Endings
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,052 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Boxing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  2. + SimulationFair39 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  3. + StrategyPoor odds12 devs · median $4.5k · 21 announced
  4. + FightingPoor odds16 devs · median $4.2k · 26 announced
  5. + 2D FighterPoor odds14 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  6. + Martial ArtsPoor odds30 devs · median $1.4k · 47 announced
  7. + SportsPoor odds61 devs · median $898 · 62 announced
  8. + ActionPoor odds65 devs · median $719 · 84 announced
  9. + CombatPoor odds49 devs · median $719 · 70 announced
  10. + PvPPoor odds16 devs · median $718 · 38 announced
  11. + PhysicsPoor odds14 devs · median $718 · 27 announced
  12. + 3D FighterPoor odds38 devs · median $599 · 57 announced

All 24 pairs on the Boxing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kao the Kangaroo older $29.99 871 74% 26k $784k (exactly $783,639) Tate Multimedia
MMA Life Simulator $16.99 435 80% 13k $222k (exactly $221,719) BNS7
Chushpan Simulator older $2.99 2,466 85% 74k $221k (exactly $221,200) Sebasa Games
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
MMA Team Manager older $29.99 56 33% 1.7k $50k (exactly $50,383) Alternative Software Ltd
A.D. 2047 older $19.99 79 62% 2.4k $47k (exactly $47,376) Leenzee Games
Chushpan Simulator 2 older $2.99 448 81% 13k $40k (exactly $40,186) Sebasa Games
World Championship Boxing Manager™ 2 older $12.99 90 67% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,073) Mega Cat Studios
Pato Box older $9.99 117 70% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) Bromio, 2think design studio
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions
Creepy Creepy Love $4.99 62 93% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) BYYONI Entertainment
The SeethingSwarm Collection $9.99 25 92% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) Seethingswarm
DASHPUNCH $7.99 17 100% 510 $4.1k (exactly $4,075) DoubleV
Dadlympics · EA $3.99 14 78% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Gooby Games
Impact to the Head $2.50 18 83% 540 $1.4k (exactly $1,350) W0nnaFight
Road To Champion: Boxing Simulator · EA $10.99 4 25% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) Gunersoft
S.S.C. Rusted $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Series Sun

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.