Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Boxing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Boxing Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Boxing

Only 14 developers shipped a Boxing Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Spirit X Strike, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Boxing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $359 → $1.3k → $2.1k → $0
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Boxing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $148 (exactly $148)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $158,218)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 53
Announced 19
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Boxing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter, Boxing
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 81% positive over 512 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spirit X Strike · EA $12.99 406 82% 12k $158k (exactly $158,218) MAICHA STUDIO
Tactic Boxing older $9.99 416 77% 12k $125k (exactly $124,675) Stately Eagle Games
Kandidatos older $0.99 3,461 90% 104k $103k (exactly $102,792) Shaikonina Games
Let's take a bath with Purin 2 older $17.99 133 83% 4.0k $72k (exactly $71,780) Parabolica Games
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Blast Beat older $19.99 46 93% 1.4k $28k (exactly $27,586) gz.inc
Revenge of the Boxer: Moscow Criminality older $4.99 166 90% 5.0k $25k (exactly $24,850) Alligator Friends Software
Fighting Robots older $2.99 228 54% 6.8k $20k (exactly $20,452) HFM Games
Dragon Fury older $19.99 15 60% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Esenthel
Russian Drunken Boxers older $24.99 11 100% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Laush Dmitriy Segeevich
Glamour Riot · EA $9.99 7 28% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) AquaStudio, ValarFerys
Road To Champion: Boxing Simulator · EA $10.99 4 25% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) Gunersoft
ChessBoxing Championship $9.99 2 50% 60 $599 (exactly $599) MysticOakGames
GeoBoxer $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Phenomaker
Boomer Brawler $0.99 5 100% 150 $148 (exactly $148) FzzyBzzy
POTUS vs. The World! $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) F.a. Forge
Code Ragnarok $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) 吴健002
Slap Fighter $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Curious Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.