Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music game?

Music

Of 334 developers who shipped a Music game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 472 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×2247 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 472 games are announced against 203 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 472 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 334
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.4k → $1.5k → $1.3k → $6.0k → $1.5k → $2.8k → $1.8k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 334
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,388)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,067,466)
Developers, 2 yr 334
Released games 1,683
Announced 472
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 206,111 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 186 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 472 games are announced against 203 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Music

67 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Visual Novel + Music Strong odds $18k 27 devs
  2. Life Sim + Music Strong odds $9.2k 28 devs
  3. Simulation + Music Fair $3.0k 81 devs
  4. Driving + Music Fair $2.4k 8 devs
  5. Walking Simulator + Music Fair $2.1k 16 devs
  6. Arcade + Music Fair $1.6k 110 devs
  7. Music-Based Procedural Generation + Music Fair $809 44 devs
  8. Hidden Object + Music Fair $539 11 devs
  9. Open World + Music Poor odds $148k 10 devs
  10. Grid-Based Movement + Music Poor odds $23k 7 devs
  11. Multiple Endings + Music Poor odds $18k 12 devs
  12. RPG + Music Poor odds $17k 26 devs
  13. Local Co-Op + Music Poor odds $16k 12 devs
  14. Creature Collector + Music Poor odds $16k 12 devs
  15. Action-Adventure + Music Poor odds $13k 23 devs
  16. Shoot 'Em Up + Music Poor odds $9.0k 12 devs
  17. Local Multiplayer + Music Poor odds $8.4k 13 devs
  18. Choices Matter + Music Poor odds $7.2k 18 devs
  19. Roguelike + Music Poor odds $7.2k 12 devs
  20. Immersive Sim + Music Poor odds $6.6k 26 devs
  21. Sports + Music Poor odds $6.3k 22 devs
  22. Management + Music Poor odds $6.1k 22 devs
  23. Co-op + Music Poor odds $6.0k 24 devs
  24. Adventure + Music Poor odds $5.7k 78 devs
  25. Exploration + Music Poor odds $5.7k 36 devs
  26. Sandbox + Music Poor odds $5.0k 18 devs
  27. Online Co-Op + Music Poor odds $5.0k 12 devs
  28. Building + Music Poor odds $3.9k 15 devs
  29. Shooter + Music Poor odds $3.1k 26 devs
  30. Collectathon + Music Poor odds $3.1k 15 devs
  31. Resource Management + Music Poor odds $2.9k 15 devs
  32. Idler + Music Poor odds $2.8k 33 devs
  33. Level Editor + Music Poor odds $2.5k 28 devs
  34. Incremental + Music Poor odds $2.5k 16 devs
  35. Rhythm + Music Poor odds $2.4k 172 devs
  36. Point & Click + Music Poor odds $2.3k 19 devs
  37. Interactive Fiction + Music Poor odds $2.3k 7 devs
  38. Action + Music Poor odds $2.1k 136 devs
  39. PvP + Music Poor odds $2.1k 17 devs
  40. Combat + Music Poor odds $1.9k 29 devs
  41. PvE + Music Poor odds $1.9k 11 devs
  42. Strategy + Music Poor odds $1.7k 30 devs
  43. Character Customization + Music Poor odds $1.6k 29 devs
  44. Racing + Music Poor odds $1.6k 16 devs
  45. Action Roguelike + Music Poor odds $1.2k 11 devs
  46. Runner + Music Poor odds $1.2k 16 devs
  47. Bullet Hell + Music Poor odds $1.0k 23 devs
  48. Roguelite + Music Poor odds $1.0k 15 devs
  49. 3D Platformer + Music Poor odds $1.0k 14 devs
  50. Score Attack + Music Poor odds $899 53 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M Geometry Dash 2014 · $89M DJMAX RESPECT V 2020 · $45M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
DELTARUNE $24.99 124,894 98% 3.7M $94M (exactly $93,633,032) tobyfox
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
Hotline Miami older $9.99 109,610 96% 3.3M $33M (exactly $32,850,117) Dennaton Games
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Hi-Fi RUSH older $29.99 27,454 97% 824k $25M (exactly $24,700,364) Tango Gameworks
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
Rocksmith® 2014 Edition REMASTERED LEARN & PLAY $9.99 15,615 85% 468k $4.7M (exactly $4,679,816) Ubisoft - San Francisco, Ubisoft - Osaka
Mixtape $19.99 7,365 87% 221k $4.4M (exactly $4,416,790) Beethoven and Dinosaur
Rift of the NecroDancer $19.99 5,844 93% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios I… (Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios Inc.)
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4 $49.99 1,554 68% 47k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534) Iron Galaxy Studios
Wanderstop $24.99 2,938 92% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619) Ivy Road
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis $16.99 3,974 91% 119k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) Alliance Arts, WHO YOU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.