Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Music

Only 14 developers shipped a Music 3D Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3711 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.0k → $2.4k → $4.7k → $148k → $25k → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $148k (exactly $148,008)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 63
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,256 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
In Sound Mind older $34.99 5,467 95% 164k $5.7M (exactly $5,738,710) We Create Stuff
The Pathless older $39.99 1,944 90% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,332,217) Giant Squid
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4 $49.99 1,554 68% 47k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534) Iron Galaxy Studios
No Straight Roads: Encore Edition older $24.99 1,813 89% 54k $1.4M (exactly $1,359,206) Metronomik
BALAN WONDERWORLD older $39.99 454 55% 14k $545k (exactly $544,664) Square Enix, ARZEST Corp.
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
Metro Gravity $12.99 852 92% 26k $332k (exactly $332,024) mrkogamedev
My Singing Monsters Playground older $39.99 263 82% 7.9k $316k (exactly $315,521) Big Blue Bubble
Music Racer older $1.99 3,332 87% 100k $199k (exactly $198,920) AbstractArt
Giraffe and Annika older $19.99 293 92% 8.8k $176k (exactly $175,712) atelier mimina
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
Dance Eden $19.99 42 85% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) DigiEden
Scuttle $6.99 15 100% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Altered Self Games
Synthwave Tunnel · EA $4.99 7 85% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Hard Shark Games
Retrowave Barro Crazy Drift $15.99 2 100% 60 $959 (exactly $959) thinfat
DREAM WAVE'84 $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) John Pfeifer
Geometry Jump: Impossible Game $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.