Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Roguelike?

Roguelike + Music

Only 12 developers shipped a Music Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ratatan, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×15 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×3865 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 37 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 37 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $48k → $21k → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,987)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,836,015)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 36
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,824 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crypt of the NecroDancer older $14.99 23,593 95% 708k $11M (exactly $10,609,772) Brace Yourself Games
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
Ratatan · EA $24.99 2,449 85% 73k $1.8M (exactly $1,836,015) TVT Co. Ltd., Ratata Arts
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
Bardbarian older $7.99 773 90% 23k $185k (exactly $185,288) TreeFortress Games
Rhythm Fighter older $14.99 380 80% 11k $171k (exactly $170,886) echo games
Beat Blast older $10.99 387 89% 12k $128k (exactly $127,594) Woolly Walrus Games
Beat Slayer older $19.99 80 88% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) ByteRockers' Games
City of Beats older $19.99 70 85% 2.1k $42k (exactly $41,979) Torched Hill
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
KAZ $6.99 143 94% 4.3k $30k (exactly $29,987) Kalinarm
Metavoidal $14.99 46 93% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Yellow Lab Games
Shady O'Grady's™ Overnight Sensation · EA $14.99 20 90% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Gilligames
KILLBEAT $9.99 24 100% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Kalma Games
Pop! Pachinko $12.99 13 100% 390 $5.1k (exactly $5,066) Pangolin Interactive, Robot Lion Games
Snowlike $7.99 14 92% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) captinbeefy
Fresh Tracks VR $19.99 2 100% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Buffalo Buffalo
Carnival Survivors The Parade $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Enchant Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.