Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Music

Only 15 developers shipped a Music Collectathon game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mr. Sleepy Man, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×803 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $748 → $3.1k (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,140)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,634)
Top 5% $381k (exactly $381,409)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 30
Announced 15
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 1,011 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soundfall older $29.99 996 73% 30k $896k (exactly $896,101) Drastic Games
Hatsune Miku Logic Paint S older $13.99 1,078 93% 32k $452k (exactly $452,437) Crypton Future Media
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
Trombone Champ: Unflattened $19.99 88 97% 2.6k $53k (exactly $52,774) Flat2VR Studios, Holy Wow Studios LLC
Look Mum No Computer $14.99 60 98% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) The Bitfather
Baby Shark™: Sing & Swim Party older $39.99 16 100% 480 $19k (exactly $19,195) Recotechnology S.L.
Lofi aquarium $5.99 87 77% 2.6k $16k (exactly $15,634) LitheGame
The Merry Fairy $9.99 40 97% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) Pronoia AB
Aesthetic Melody older $2.99 64 93% 1.9k $5.7k (exactly $5,741) Adam DeLease
Mound of Music $9.99 19 78% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Elif Games
Little Ghosties · EA $3.99 38 89% 1.1k $4.5k (exactly $4,549) Acrylic Pixel Games
Chowdown Kitty $2.99 35 74% 1.1k $3.1k (exactly $3,140) Lunar Peace
DREAM WAVE'84 $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) John Pfeifer
Spooky Monkey $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Xander Clinthorne

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.