Do I ship it?

GamesShoot 'Em UpShoot 'Em Up + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Music

Only 12 developers shipped a Music Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Touhou Koumakyou: New Classic - the Embodiment of Scarlet Devil, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×19 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×4249 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $3.2k → $5.4k → $27k → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,869)
Top 5% $2.0M (exactly $2,018,478)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 63
Announced 12
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 4,494 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds11 devs · median $5.8k · 12 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Koumakyou: New Classic - the Embodiment of Scarlet Devil $17.99 3,740 98% 112k $2.0M (exactly $2,018,478) 上海アリス幻樂団, 上海アリスReprise
Beat Hazard older $9.99 5,072 95% 152k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,078) Cold Beam Games
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
Beat Hazard 2 older $18.99 1,396 89% 42k $795k (exactly $795,301) Cold Beam Games
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
Earthion $19.99 483 95% 14k $290k (exactly $289,655) Ancient Corporation, Bitwave Games
Drums Rock older $19.99 402 88% 12k $241k (exactly $241,079) Garage51
Soundodger+ older $7.99 676 90% 20k $162k (exactly $162,037) Studio Bean
Savant - Ascent older $1.99 2,130 93% 64k $127k (exactly $127,161) D-Pad Studio
Symphony older $4.99 833 86% 25k $125k (exactly $124,700) Empty Clip Studios
東方资志疏 ~ Immortal Immanuel. (东方资志疏) $9.99 103 94% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) 雾雨威Channel, 沙包聚集地制作组
Look Mum No Computer $14.99 60 98% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) The Bitfather
HyperCore : Rhythm Bullet Hell $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Gameinaframe
Beats Of Fury $9.99 30 76% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Bubble Head Games
Murder Inc $9.99 18 77% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) PigeonDev
Miami Horizon 2077 $4.90 16 75% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,352) CJ
Heartbeats $3.99 17 94% 510 $2.0k (exactly $2,035) First Impact Studio
StreetSync $0.99 10 100% 300 $297 (exactly $297) Tyler L

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.