Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Open World game?

Open World + Music

Only 10 developers shipped a Music Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rocksmith® 2014 Edition REMASTERED LEARN & PLAY, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150k, ×99 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.6M, ×3124 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 98.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 25 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $539 → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $5.7k (exactly $5,689)
Median $148k (exactly $148,008)
Top 25% $381k (exactly $381,409)
Top 5% $4.7M (exactly $4,679,816)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 55
Announced 25
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$16.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 86% positive over 17,687 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.7k, median $150k, 1 in 4 over $380k, 1 in 20 over $4.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.7k. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M Mafia II (Classic) 2011 · $33M Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 1 + 2 2023 · $5.4M Brutal Legend 2013 · $5.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 1 + 2 older $39.99 4,497 90% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,395,051) Vicarious Visions, Iron Galaxy Studios
Brutal Legend older $14.99 11,365 94% 341k $5.1M (exactly $5,110,840) Double Fine Productions
Rocksmith® 2014 Edition REMASTERED LEARN & PLAY $9.99 15,615 85% 468k $4.7M (exactly $4,679,816) Ubisoft - San Francisco, Ubisoft - Osaka
The Pathless older $39.99 1,944 90% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,332,217) Giant Squid
Kholat older $19.99 2,036 67% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,220,989) IMGN.PRO
Crashday Redline Edition older $11.99 1,528 89% 46k $550k (exactly $549,622) Moonbyte
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
Star Overdrive $34.99 141 87% 4.2k $148k (exactly $148,008) Caracal Games
ARIE: Moonprayer $16.99 20 95% 600 $10k (exactly $10,194) PhantomWorks
The Lost Mixtape $4.99 38 97% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) Vided Studio
Spooky Monkey $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Xander Clinthorne
The Three Cardinals $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Emanuel Beaulieu
Neo Art Space $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Neo Art Lab

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.