Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Action game?

Action + Music

Of 136 developers who shipped a Music Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 220 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1701 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 220 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 220 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 136
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $6.0k → $2.9k → $7.2k → $1.6k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 136
Bottom 30% $327 (exactly $327)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,869)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,068,322)
Developers, 2 yr 136
Released games 675
Announced 220
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Rhythm, Arcade
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 56,385 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 8 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 220 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
Hotline Miami older $9.99 109,610 96% 3.3M $33M (exactly $32,850,117) Dennaton Games
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Hi-Fi RUSH older $29.99 27,454 97% 824k $25M (exactly $24,700,364) Tango Gameworks
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
Rift of the NecroDancer $19.99 5,844 93% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios I… (Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios Inc.)
Touhou Koumakyou: New Classic - the Embodiment of Scarlet Devil $17.99 3,740 98% 112k $2.0M (exactly $2,018,478) 上海アリス幻樂団, 上海アリスReprise
Ratatan · EA $24.99 2,449 85% 73k $1.8M (exactly $1,836,015) TVT Co. Ltd., Ratata Arts
Everhood 2 $19.99 2,207 74% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538) Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca
Sixtar Gate: STARTRAIL $24.99 1,425 86% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,322) Starlike Inc.
PLATiNA :: LAB $19.99 1,780 50% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,466) HIGH-END Games
PUMP IT UP RISE $44.99 777 80% 23k $1.0M (exactly $1,048,717) ANDAMIRO
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.