Do I ship it?

Games › Sports › Sports + Music

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Music Sports game?

Sports + Music

Of 22 developers who shipped a Music Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×702 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 17 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Music
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $35k → $0 → $58k → $40k → $3.4k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Music: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,298)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,734)
Top 5% $441k (exactly $440,779)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 91
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $15.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Music
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Rhythm, Action, Arcade
Price point
$15.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 4,057 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Need for Speed™ Unbound 2022 · $105M DJMAX RESPECT V 2020 · $45M Beat Saber 2019 · $42M EZ2ON REBOOT : R 2022 · $8.1M Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 1 + 2 2023 · $5.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
EZ2ON REBOOT : R older $44.99 5,972 91% 179k $8.1M (exactly $8,060,408) Neonovice Co., Ltd., SQUARE PIXELS
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 1 + 2 older $39.99 4,497 90% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,395,051) Vicarious Visions, Iron Galaxy Studios
Tony Hawk's™ Pro Skater™ 3 + 4 $49.99 1,554 68% 47k $2.3M (exactly $2,330,534) Iron Galaxy Studios
BOXVR older $29.99 1,512 79% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,346) FitXR
Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue - EXTRA2 older $24.99 1,400 99% 42k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,580) sprite, NekoNyan Ltd.
Synth Riders older $24.99 1,336 92% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Kluge Interactive
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
KALPA: Cosmic Symphony $19.99 640 84% 19k $384k (exactly $383,808) QueseraGames
Synthwave Burnout $12.99 751 74% 23k $293k (exactly $292,665) Whale Rock Games
DrumBeats VR $14.99 128 65% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Expe… (Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Experiences BV)
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Beat the Beats VR $19.99 48 97% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Parallel Circles
Dance Eden $19.99 42 85% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) DigiEden
Live Rise!!: 4K Fever · EA $17.99 22 90% 660 $12k (exactly $11,873) SAKUSORA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.