Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian game?

Dystopian

Of 801 developers who shipped a Dystopian game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,840 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×3.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×1286 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,840 games are announced against 461 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 1,840 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 801
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $8.1k → $1.5k → $2.1k → $2.1k → $1.7k → $1.0k (still earning) → $955 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 801
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,222)
Top 5% $611k (exactly $610,693)
Developers, 2 yr 801
Released games 2,249
Announced 1,840
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 175,422 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 428 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,840 games are announced against 461 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Dystopian

124 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Building + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 30 devs
  2. Base Building + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 26 devs
  3. Level Editor + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 9 devs
  4. Turn-Based + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 7 devs
  5. Simulation + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 182 devs
  6. Dynamic Narration + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 16 devs
  7. Choices Matter + Dystopian Poor odds $1.9k 155 devs
  8. Crafting + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 29 devs
  9. Souls-like + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 23 devs
  10. Outbreak Sim + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 11 devs
  11. Exploration + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 218 devs
  12. Action-Adventure + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 156 devs
  13. Survival + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 75 devs
  14. Action Roguelike + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 57 devs
  15. Shooter + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 133 devs
  16. Open World + Dystopian Poor odds $1.7k 53 devs
  17. Tactical + Dystopian Poor odds $1.7k 46 devs
  18. Interactive Fiction + Dystopian Poor odds $1.7k 94 devs
  19. Walking Simulator + Dystopian Poor odds $1.7k 56 devs
  20. Investigation + Dystopian Poor odds $1.6k 54 devs
  21. Hidden Object + Dystopian Poor odds $1.6k 21 devs
  22. Combat + Dystopian Poor odds $1.6k 118 devs
  23. Procedural Generation + Dystopian Poor odds $1.5k 52 devs
  24. Action + Dystopian Poor odds $1.4k 364 devs
  25. Puzzle + Dystopian Poor odds $1.4k 163 devs
  26. Idler + Dystopian Poor odds $1.4k 36 devs
  27. Third-Person Shooter + Dystopian Poor odds $1.4k 25 devs
  28. Arena Shooter + Dystopian Poor odds $1.4k 22 devs
  29. Roguelike + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 81 devs
  30. Turn-Based Tactics + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 38 devs
  31. 2D Platformer + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 62 devs
  32. Economy + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 32 devs
  33. Strategy + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 157 devs
  34. Wargame + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 16 devs
  35. Platformer + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 83 devs
  36. Parkour + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 21 devs
  37. Turn-Based Strategy + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 37 devs
  38. Political Sim + Dystopian Poor odds $1.2k 33 devs
  39. Management + Dystopian Poor odds $1.1k 71 devs
  40. Character Customization + Dystopian Poor odds $1.1k 44 devs
  41. Time Management + Dystopian Poor odds $1.1k 30 devs
  42. Resource Management + Dystopian Poor odds $1.1k 74 devs
  43. PvE + Dystopian Poor odds $1.0k 94 devs
  44. Point & Click + Dystopian Poor odds $989 86 devs
  45. Sandbox + Dystopian Poor odds $989 31 devs
  46. Tower Defense + Dystopian Poor odds $989 21 devs
  47. Score Attack + Dystopian Poor odds $955 37 devs
  48. 3D Platformer + Dystopian Poor odds $899 46 devs
  49. RTS + Dystopian Poor odds $899 21 devs
  50. Inventory Management + Dystopian Poor odds $898 28 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stray 2022 · $142M Stellar Blade™ 2025 · $110M BioShock Infinite 2013 · $99M Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020 · $55M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
BioShock Infinite older $29.99 109,718 93% 3.3M $99M (exactly $98,713,285) Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux))
Half-Life 2 older $9.99 202,782 97% 6.1M $61M (exactly $60,773,765) Valve
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series older $49.99 36,594 96% 1.1M $55M (exactly $54,880,022) Skybound Games
Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus older $39.99 35,277 81% 1.1M $42M (exactly $42,321,817) MachineGames
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
RoboCop: Rogue City older $39.99 28,196 86% 846k $34M (exactly $33,826,741) Teyon
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
BioShock™ Remastered older $19.99 52,500 83% 1.6M $31M (exactly $31,484,250) 2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel… (2K Boston, 2K Australia, Blind Squirrel, Feral Interactive (Mac))
AI LIMIT $34.99 22,833 92% 685k $24M (exactly $23,967,800) Sense Games
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.