Do I ship it?

GamesOutbreak SimOutbreak Sim + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Outbreak Sim?

Outbreak Sim + Dystopian

Only 11 developers shipped a Dystopian Outbreak Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, After Inc: Revival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $790k, ×1682 the market median. Revenue is up 12070% on the market; 23 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 12070% on the market, 23 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Outbreak Sim + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $271k → $1.8k → $479 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Outbreak Sim + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $124k (exactly $123,538)
Top 5% $799k (exactly $798,756)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 26
Announced 23
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 12070% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Outbreak Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 80% positive over 2,582 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $790k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 23 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Outbreak Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RTSFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  2. + ZombiesFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 49 announced
  3. + Real Time TacticsFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorFair22 devs · median $958 · 24 announced
  6. + Sci-fiLong shot15 devs · median $270 · 20 announced
  7. + City BuilderPoor odds10 devs · median $16k · 16 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 30 announced
  9. + ManagementPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 45 announced
  10. + Resource ManagementPoor odds24 devs · median $10k · 43 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds16 devs · median $6.1k · 26 announced
  12. + Time ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $4.3k · 19 announced

All 41 pairs on the Outbreak Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Project Planet - Earth vs Humanity older $24.99 361 78% 11k $271k (exactly $270,642) Fifth Harbour Studios
This Is the President older $14.99 359 67% 11k $161k (exactly $161,442) SuperPAC
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
SLEEP AWAKE $29.99 164 71% 4.9k $148k (exactly $147,551) EYES OUT, LLC.
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Execute $5.99 679 91% 20k $122k (exactly $122,016) Payne Robinson
Quarantineer older $9.99 307 80% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) Papaonn
Day Zero · EA $4.99 39 79% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) Imdie Studios
Supreme Ruler Global Outbreak $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) BattleGoat Studios
GlobalQuarantine $4.99 6 33% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Contagio Games
A Game About AI $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) TaleHammer
Signal Zero $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Hollow Frame
Dying Reign $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Bryce

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.