Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Dystopian

Of 46 developers who shipped a Dystopian 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1143 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 97 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 97 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $66 → $449 → $449 → $719 → $1.1k → $359 → $2.3k (still earning) → $390 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 5% $718k (exactly $718,080)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 131
Announced 97
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Platformer, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 11,911 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $900, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror's Edge™ older $19.99 31,195 87% 936k $19M (exactly $18,707,642) DICE
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst older $19.99 14,078 79% 422k $8.4M (exactly $8,442,577) DICE
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
Get To Work $12.99 3,456 88% 104k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,803) Isto Inc.
VHOLUME $8.00 2,992 97% 90k $718k (exactly $718,080) Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels… (Nathan Grange, Léonard Lemaitre, Niels Tiercelin)
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden
Possessor(s) $9.99 718 75% 22k $215k (exactly $215,185) Heart Machine
Hazel Sky older $24.99 242 68% 7.3k $181k (exactly $181,427) Coffee Addict Studio
Ereban: Shadow Legacy older $19.99 271 85% 8.1k $163k (exactly $162,519) Baby Robot Games
Fallback older $9.99 299 87% 9.0k $90k (exactly $89,610) Endroad
Ikarus Parkour $12.99 195 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Vanja Aleksić
No Vacation for an Executioner $13.99 78 70% 2.3k $33k (exactly $32,737) JayO
WHITE CHOCOLATE $3.99 78 94% 2.3k $9.3k (exactly $9,337) Bakery of Games
Dystopian Pet Simulator · EA $5.99 49 93% 1.5k $8.8k (exactly $8,805) dinca.team
Soul Drifter $14.99 16 93% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) VISIONKEEPER Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.