Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Sandbox?

Sandbox + Dystopian

Of 31 developers who shipped a Dystopian Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×464 the market median. Revenue is up 385% on the market; 87 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 385% on the market, 87 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $202k → $13k → $1.8k → $3.0k → $419 → $4.3k (still earning) → $478 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $989 (exactly $989)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 5% $292k (exactly $291,633)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 89
Announced 87
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 385% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Survival, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Dark Humor, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 6,743 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $990, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
AI*Shoujo/AI*少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
ATOM RPG Trudograd older $10.99 3,976 83% 119k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,887) AtomTeam
Landlord's Super older $19.99 1,442 80% 43k $865k (exactly $864,767) Minskworks
Dystopika older $6.99 3,413 95% 102k $716k (exactly $715,706) Voids Within
Ark of Charon $24.99 389 75% 12k $292k (exactly $291,633) Angoo Inc., SUNSOFT
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Beatdown City Survivors $9.99 80 98% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) NuChallenger
Colony 37 · EA $2.99 224 95% 6.7k $20k (exactly $20,093) Valen
OK Boomer · EA $7.99 70 77% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,779) Pugsy Studios
Sand: A Superfluous Game $9.99 24 83% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Voided Pixels Studio
SCP $9.99 24 37% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Molance Games
CyberpunkXXX $9.99 21 33% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) GAMERFLEX Studios
Seclusion · EA $9.99 19 68% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Forgeworks Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.