Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Dystopian

Of 22 developers who shipped a Dystopian Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $17k, ×29 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 70 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 70 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $36k → $30 → $3.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $17,964)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 73
Announced 70
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Difficult, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 799 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M Rollerdrome 2022 · $1.3M SPRAWL 2023 · $882k Kvark 2024 · $276k ARMORED HEAD 2020 · $184k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
SPRAWL older $14.99 1,961 87% 59k $882k (exactly $881,862) MAETH
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
ARMORED HEAD older $4.99 1,229 98% 37k $184k (exactly $183,981) Egor Rezenov
Zombie Training Simulator older $19.99 227 92% 6.8k $136k (exactly $136,132) Acceleroto, Inc.
The Burst older $15.99 76 72% 2.3k $36k (exactly $36,457) GoRapid Studio
DOOMBRINGER · EA older $14.99 60 78% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) Anomic Games
hate.net $4.99 120 95% 3.6k $18k (exactly $17,964) bonitāka
HoverGrease 2 $19.99 24 83% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Altergaze
Cyber Clutch: Hot Import Nights $19.99 21 61% 630 $13k (exactly $12,594) Gunpowder Games, Focuspoint Studios
Nuclear Gladiators 3000 $6.99 56 94% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,743) Turbo Napalm
System Breakdown $8.99 16 100% 480 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Anarchy Creations
FLESHCANCER · EA $2.99 41 87% 1.2k $3.7k (exactly $3,678) Empires of the Cake
Galatico · EA $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Galatico Studios
Missiles Away $1.99 40 100% 1.2k $2.4k (exactly $2,388) Kızılejderha
Machinicide $9.99 7 85% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Gravity Shenanigans

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.