Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Crafting game?

Crafting + Dystopian

Of 29 developers who shipped a Dystopian Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2714 the market median. Revenue is up 820% on the market; 100 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 820% on the market, 100 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $598 → $1.2k → $122k → $989 (still earning) → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $57k (exactly $56,833)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 72
Announced 100
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 820% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Management, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, Surreal
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 16,833 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

We Happy Few 2018 · $20M Cronos: The New Dawn 2025 · $14M Ghosts of Tabor 2023 · EA · $6.9M Homefront®: The Revolution 2016 · $6.8M DYSMANTLE 2021 · $6.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
We Happy Few older $59.99 11,204 76% 336k $20M (exactly $20,163,839) Compulsion Games
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
Homefront®: The Revolution older $19.99 11,393 63% 342k $6.8M (exactly $6,832,382) Dambuster Studios
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
After the Fall® older $19.99 2,572 76% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,542,428) Vertigo Games
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Cargo Hunters · EA $19.99 739 82% 22k $443k (exactly $443,178) Order Of Meta
JUNKPUNK · EA older $15.99 641 60% 19k $307k (exactly $307,488) SCT
Execute $5.99 679 91% 20k $122k (exactly $122,016) Payne Robinson
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
Frozen Ship · EA $19.99 142 76% 4.3k $85k (exactly $85,157) Nionetix
Chipmatic $11.99 158 65% 4.7k $57k (exactly $56,833) Molter
Dead Finger Dice $4.99 230 78% 6.9k $34k (exactly $34,431) Rocket Adrift Games
Beatdown City Survivors $9.99 80 98% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) NuChallenger

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.