Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Dystopian

Of 37 developers who shipped a Dystopian Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×8591 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 107 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 107 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $275k → $177k → $449 → $449 → $37k → $1.9k → $180 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,158)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,989)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 101
Announced 107
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 18,444 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- 2025 · $12M Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster 2021 · $6.0M Quasimorph 2026 · $5.4M Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game 2023 · $4.9M Shadowrun Returns 2013 · $4.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- $59.99 6,893 88% 207k $12M (exactly $12,405,332) Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc.
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Shadowrun Returns older $14.99 9,521 88% 286k $4.3M (exactly $4,281,594) Harebrained Schemes
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
Showgunners older $29.99 1,642 93% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,477,307) Artificer
ATOM RPG Trudograd older $10.99 3,976 83% 119k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,887) AtomTeam
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse $19.99 340 77% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) EXLIX
Deified · EA $14.99 281 96% 8.4k $126k (exactly $126,366) Unexpected
Vanguard Exiles · EA $19.99 61 81% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) The Tea Division
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.