Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Roguelike?

Roguelike + Dystopian

Of 81 developers who shipped a Dystopian Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1363 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 162 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 162 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $130k → $1.3k → $2.1k → $7.8k → $1.2k → $299 (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,704)
Top 5% $648k (exactly $647,652)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 159
Announced 162
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 15,878 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Quasimorph 2026 · $5.4M Going Under 2020 · $1.6M As We Descend 2025 · EA · $801k Marfusha:Sentinel Girls 2021 · $747k Pronoun Palace 2026 · $743k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Going Under older $19.99 2,702 92% 81k $1.6M (exactly $1,620,389) Aggro Crab
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Marfusha:Sentinel Girls older $7.99 3,116 93% 93k $747k (exactly $746,905) hinyari9
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Touhou Dystopian $9.99 2,161 97% 65k $648k (exactly $647,652) Kay Lnk
Snezhinka:Sentinel Girls2 older $7.99 2,433 96% 73k $583k (exactly $583,190) hinyari9
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
RAM: Random Access Mayhem $14.99 611 97% 18k $275k (exactly $274,767) Xylem Studios
Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse $19.99 340 77% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) EXLIX
Dead-End City Blues OD Edition $8.99 615 86% 18k $166k (exactly $165,866) AleCubicSoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.