Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Strategy game?

Strategy + Dystopian

Of 157 developers who shipped a Dystopian Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 344 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×579 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 344 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 344 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 157
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $163k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $4.9k → $1.7k → $898 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 157
Bottom 30% $330 (exactly $330)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,890)
Top 5% $364k (exactly $363,625)
Developers, 2 yr 157
Released games 370
Announced 344
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 24,536 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 7 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 344 games are announced against 96 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Papers, Please older $9.99 73,406 97% 2.2M $22M (exactly $21,999,778) Lucas Pope
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
Infection Free Zone · EA older $24.99 16,568 80% 497k $12M (exactly $12,421,030) Jutsu Games
Beholder older $13.99 23,199 91% 696k $9.7M (exactly $9,736,620) Alawar Stargaze (Warm Lamp Games)
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Do Not Feed the Monkeys older $15.99 10,376 93% 311k $5.0M (exactly $4,977,367) Fictiorama Studios
Shadowrun Returns older $14.99 9,521 88% 286k $4.3M (exactly $4,281,594) Harebrained Schemes
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Beholder 2 older $17.99 6,865 87% 206k $3.7M (exactly $3,705,040) Alawar Stargaze (Warm Lamp Games)
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Beholder: Conductor $13.99 4,532 91% 136k $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) Alawar
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
FACEMINER $7.99 1,517 90% 46k $364k (exactly $363,625) Wristwork
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games
Ark of Charon $24.99 389 75% 12k $292k (exactly $291,633) Angoo Inc., SUNSOFT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.