Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Investigation game?

Investigation + Dystopian

Of 54 developers who shipped a Dystopian Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 129 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2740 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 129 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 129 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $8.9k → $3.4k → $5.7k → $5.7k → $1.0k → $1.6k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,473)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 139
Announced 129
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Logic
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 12,733 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 129 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nobody Wants to Die older $24.99 5,818 83% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) Critical Hit Games
Orwell: Keeping an Eye On You older $9.99 8,936 90% 268k $2.7M (exactly $2,678,119) Osmotic Studios
Observer: System Redux older $29.99 2,462 84% 74k $2.2M (exactly $2,215,061) Bloober Team, Anshar Studios
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Tales of the Neon Sea older $16.99 3,853 84% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,963,874) YiTi Games
Tails Noir older $24.99 2,592 66% 78k $1.9M (exactly $1,943,222) Eggnut
Beholder: Conductor $13.99 4,532 91% 136k $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) Alawar
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
NORCO older $14.99 2,774 92% 83k $1.2M (exactly $1,247,468) Geography of Robots
Obenseuer · EA older $19.99 1,684 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,009,895) Loiste Interactive
Database Detective: Minor Crimes Division $14.99 850 97% 26k $382k (exactly $382,245) Thomas Hsu
Machinika: Atlas $11.99 574 76% 17k $206k (exactly $206,468) Littlefield Studio
Decade $9.99 129 96% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,661) Last Piscean
60 Minutes to Extinction: Escape Room $7.99 153 82% 4.6k $37k (exactly $36,674) mc2games
What Awaits, Aleksey? $15.99 51 86% 1.5k $24k (exactly $24,465) JKBC
无名者 $7.99 97 95% 2.9k $23k (exactly $23,251) Origincourtyard世界庭院, 三七洛九
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.