Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Dystopian

Only 7 developers shipped a Dystopian Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Quasimorph, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×8591 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 25% $135k (exactly $134,932)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 28
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 28,228 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 13 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Shadowrun Returns older $14.99 9,521 88% 286k $4.3M (exactly $4,281,594) Harebrained Schemes
ATOM RPG Trudograd older $10.99 3,976 83% 119k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,887) AtomTeam
FINAL FANTASY VII older $11.99 1,464 74% 44k $527k (exactly $526,601) Square Enix, FINE Co., Ltd.
Jack Move older $19.99 813 80% 24k $488k (exactly $487,556) So Romantic
Aeon's End older $14.99 438 82% 13k $197k (exactly $196,969) Handelabra Games Inc.
Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action $19.99 225 84% 6.8k $135k (exactly $134,932) Moonana
Vigilantes older $14.99 276 80% 8.3k $124k (exactly $124,117) Timeslip Softworks
Rain of Reflections: Set Free older $9.99 232 74% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,530) Lionbite Games
Fractured Core $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Engram Interactive
Mordfield Command $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Software Verde, LLC
REDTAPE $9.99 4 25% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Gary Lee
UHILANT $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BoVtik
Galdromeda $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) rediskdev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.