Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Tactical game?

Tactical + Dystopian

Of 46 developers who shipped a Dystopian Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2558 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 124 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 124 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $62k → $66k → $599 → $13k → $27k → $1.9k → $6.0k (still earning) → $330 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,709)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,599)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 111
Announced 124
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 32,193 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Cruelty Squad older $19.99 23,209 96% 696k $14M (exactly $13,918,437) Consumer Softproducts
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Shadowrun Returns older $14.99 9,521 88% 286k $4.3M (exactly $4,281,594) Harebrained Schemes
Beholder 2 older $17.99 6,865 87% 206k $3.7M (exactly $3,705,040) Alawar Stargaze (Warm Lamp Games)
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Showgunners older $29.99 1,642 93% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,477,307) Artificer
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
Dying Breed · EA $17.99 218 71% 6.5k $118k (exactly $117,655) Sarnayer
SONOKUNI $14.99 109 98% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) DON YASA CREW
Vanguard Exiles · EA $19.99 61 81% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) The Tea Division
Slay or Fall $6.99 147 89% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,826) ostsergey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.