Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Dystopian

Of 156 developers who shipped a Dystopian Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 419 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2145 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 419 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 419 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 156
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.2k → $629 → $2.2k → $1.8k → $1.0k → $3.9k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 156
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,467)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,346,803)
Developers, 2 yr 156
Released games 457
Announced 419
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 129,535 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 419 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
AI LIMIT $34.99 22,833 92% 685k $24M (exactly $23,967,800) Sense Games
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
SANABI older $14.99 41,700 97% 1.3M $19M (exactly $18,752,490) WONDER POTION
Mirror's Edge™ older $19.99 31,195 87% 936k $19M (exactly $18,707,642) DICE
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Remember Me older $29.99 11,128 83% 334k $10M (exactly $10,011,862) DONTNOD Entertainment
Mirror's Edge™ Catalyst older $19.99 14,078 79% 422k $8.4M (exactly $8,442,577) DICE
REPLACED $19.99 9,130 84% 274k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,261) Sad Cat Studios
Crisol: Theater of Idols $17.99 4,103 85% 123k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) Vermila Studios
MOLE $12.99 3,534 97% 106k $1.4M (exactly $1,377,200) Off Black Creations
Get To Work $12.99 3,456 88% 104k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,803) Isto Inc.
Arizona Sunshine® VR Remake $19.99 1,203 88% 36k $721k (exactly $721,439) Vertigo Games
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.