Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Wargame?

Wargame + Dystopian

Only 16 developers shipped a Dystopian Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Scavland, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×764 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $23k → $13k → $1.7k → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,688)
Top 5% $480k (exactly $479,760)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 42
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Grand Strategy, Political Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,097 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
VLADiK BRUTAL older $11.99 9,551 89% 287k $3.4M (exactly $3,435,495) BRUTAL SOFTWARE
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
Bot Wars · EA older $14.99 700 86% 21k $315k (exactly $314,790) Frompy Games
Quarantineer older $9.99 307 80% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) Papaonn
Punk Wars older $19.99 99 55% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Strategy Forge S.A.
War of the Human Tanks - ALTeR older $12.99 80 95% 2.4k $31k (exactly $31,176) Yakiniku Banzai
Epstein older $3.99 237 67% 7.1k $28k (exactly $28,369) GalaxyVerse
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
White Sands · EA older $26.99 29 41% 870 $23k (exactly $23,481) Binge Gaming OU
Kiloton $6.99 103 96% 3.1k $22k (exactly $21,599) Jack Morehart
Trump Simulator 2025 $3.99 106 91% 3.2k $13k (exactly $12,688) Luke Gayson
Mordfield Command $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Software Verde, LLC
Supreme Ruler Global Outbreak $19.99 3 66% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) BattleGoat Studios
The Lost Painter $2.99 19 100% 570 $1.7k (exactly $1,704) Ravenhome Studios
Voyna $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) HellYeah!
Black Border 2 $1.99 19 63% 570 $1.1k (exactly $1,134) Bitzooma
Frogrammer $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Snobfox

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.